Is American League (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of American League (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $156.86 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $113.60 across 114 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on American League (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. American League (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 114 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from American League (Spicy)?

The median pull is $113.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $605.00.

Baseball

American League (Spicy)

American League (Spicy) is a Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $156.86 and a typical (median) pull of $113.60 across 114 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$157

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · 114 pulls · 1dSIGNAL Stale · 31 h ago

Calibrated EV: $157
Cash-out EV: $133
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $114
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $157
Pulls indexed: 114
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is American League (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the American League (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 31 h ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 2.0 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 9.3 days.

Newest pull: 31 h; observed
Pull rate: 12.3/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 64; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of American League (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1933 to 2025.

Vintage (pre-2000)61%$130 avg
Current (2020+)20%$168 avg
Modern (2010-2019)19%$229 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps37%$130 avg
Topps Chrome5%$191 avg
Topps Update5%$264 avg
Upper Deck4%$106 avg
Bowman3%$111 avg
Topps Allen & Ginter3%$241 avg
Topps Stadium Club Autographs3%$95 avg
Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Autographs2%$243 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 98% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Shohei Ohtani16%$226 avg
Ken Griffey Jr5%$117 avg
Cal Raleigh4%$95 avg
Don Mattingly4%$113 avg
Mike Trout4%$226 avg
Carl Yastrzemski3%$102 avg
Julio Rodriguez3%$167 avg
Aaron Judge2%$367 avg

Built from the 114 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

American League (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In American League (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 9% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

9% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 112 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

112 paired pulls · 98% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $133.81 — $24.36 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

American League (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $570.0%· stable
$57 – $11450.0%· stable
$114 – $227 · beats the pack34.2%· stable
$227 – $568 · big hit14.9%· stable
$568+ · chase0.9%· stable

Observed across 114 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest American League (Spicy) pulls

2017 Topps Opening Day #147 Aaron Judge - Rainbow Blue Foil (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$605PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Topps Update #US1 Shohei Ohtani - Pitching in Red Jersey (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$474PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Topps Update #US1 Shohei Ohtani (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$443PSA 10 GEM MINT

1975 O-Pee-Chee #228 George Brett (PSA 4 VG-EX)

$443PSA 4 VG-EX

2011 Topps Update #US175 Mike Trout (PSA 9 MINT)

$391PSA 9 MINT

$2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Autographs #CDAMM Marcelo Mayer - Aqua Lava Refractor (PSA 9 MINT)$

2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Autographs #CDAMM Marcelo Mayer - Aqua Lava Refractor (PSA 9 MINT)

$384PSA 9 MINT

2018 Topps Allen & Ginter #100 Shohei Ohtani (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$377PSA 10 GEM MINT

$1996 Bowman's Best Preview #BBP13 Frank Thomas - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

1996 Bowman's Best Preview #BBP13 Frank Thomas - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$352PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

American League (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $156.86, and has moved down 3.1% over the last 7 days.

$156.86EV

09 / Quick answers

American League (Spicy) — quick answers

Is American League (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of American League (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $156.86 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $113.60 across 114 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on American League (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. American League (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 114 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from American League (Spicy)?: The median pull is $113.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $605.00.

10 / Pull log