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Wildcard Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.934x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.778x, across 119 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricWildcard Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$91.99$276.00
Cash-out ratio0.778x0.934x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.920x1.104x
Median pull$84.70$217.85
Hit rate19.2%25.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.33x0.47x
Pulls indexed9920

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Wildcard Master Pack: 621 points from Jul 12 to Sep 22, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.78x, down overall (-7.2%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 620 points from Jul 17 to Sep 22, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+29.0%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Wildcard Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Wildcard Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Wildcard Master Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.934x vs 0.778x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Wildcard Master Pack: 19.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 25.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.33x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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