Is Wildcard Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 25/100). Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Wildcard Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $192.75 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $200.00 across 5 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Ultra Pack?

20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Wildcard Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $200.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $334.00.

Baseball

Wildcard Ultra Pack

Wildcard Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $192.75, worth $163.07 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.652x (0.771x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 20.0% of 5 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (25/100).

Ranked #79 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #15 of 17 Baseball packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.652x

$163.07 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.771x.

SKIP-34.8% ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 5 pulls · 19dSIGNAL Awaiting new data · 20 days ago

Calibrated EV: $193
Cash-out EV: $163
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $200
Hit rate: 20.0%
Lifetime EV: $223
Pulls indexed: 5
Last pull: 19d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Wildcard Ultra Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 25/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $163 on a $250 pack (-34.8% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $200 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV has been stable over the last 7 days.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $193 vs $223 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
20.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 5 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Wildcard Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

5 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

5 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 5 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Awaiting new data · 20 days ago

No pulls indexed recently, so this read cannot refresh. Treat it as a snapshot of the past.

Newest pull: 20 days; observed
Pull rate: none; observed
Pulls, 7d: 0; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Wildcard Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 5 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1959 to 2024.

Current (2020+)40%$274 avg
Year not stated40%$194 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)20%$178 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

DC Comics20%$200 avg
Disney Lorcana EN 4-Ursula's Return20%$334 avg
Marvel Comics20%$188 avg
One Piece Pillars of Strength20%$214 avg
Topps20%$178 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Batman20%$200 avg
Eustass "Captain" Kid20%$214 avg
Incredible Hulk20%$188 avg
Moe Drabowsky20%$178 avg
Ursula20%$334 avg

What comes out

Not every pull is a graded single.

Graded cards60%$242 avg
Graded comics40%$194 avg

Built from the 5 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Wildcard Ultra Pack pulls

2024 Disney Lorcana EN 4-Ursula's Return #208 Ursula - Sea Witch Queen - Enchanted (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$334PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 One Piece Pillars of Strength #051 Eustass "Captain" Kid - Wanted Alternate Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$214PSA 10 GEM MINT

Batman #96 CGC 1.5 Off-white Pages (DC Comics, 12/55) - Universal

$200CGC-COMIC 1.5 FA/G

Incredible Hulk #152 CGC 9.6 Off-white to White Pages (Marvel Comics, 6/72) - Universal

$188CGC-COMIC 9.6 NM+

1959 Topps #407 Moe Drabowsky (PSA 9 MINT)

$178PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Wildcard Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $192.75, below the $250 pack price, and has moved up 0.0% over the last 7 days.

0.771xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Wildcard Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 25/100). Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Wildcard Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $192.75 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $200.00 across 5 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Ultra Pack?: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Wildcard Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $200.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $334.00.

10 / Pull log

Latest Wildcard Ultra Pack pulls

1959 Topps #407 Moe Drabowsky (PSA 9 MINT)$178.0019d ago
Incredible Hulk #152 CGC 9.6 Off-white to White Pages (Marvel Comics, 6/72) - Universal$188.0024d ago
Batman #96 CGC 1.5 Off-white Pages (DC Comics, 12/55) - Universal$200.0034d ago
2024 Disney Lorcana EN 4-Ursula's Return #208 Ursula - Sea Witch Queen - Enchanted (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$334.0035d ago
2023 One Piece Pillars of Strength #051 Eustass "Captain" Kid - Wanted Alternate Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$214.0055d ago

Compare Wildcard Ultra Pack with other Baseball packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.