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Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.412x cash-out ratio against Bronze Age Pack's 1.067x, across 129 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBronze Age PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictNO DATAEARLY READ
Pack price$200$250
Calibrated EV$252.22$415.02
Cash-out ratio1.067x1.412x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.261x1.660x
Median pull$165.50$218.40
Hit rate36.8%34.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.78x0.83x
Pulls indexed7653

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Bronze Age Pack: 931 points from Aug 2 to Oct 25, starting at 0.54x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+97.2%), ranging between 0.54x and 1.09x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 993 points from Jul 17 to Oct 25, starting at 0.73x and ending at 1.41x, up overall (+94.0%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.

Bronze Age PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Bronze Age Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.412x vs 1.067x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Bronze Age Pack: 36.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 34.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.83x vs 0.78x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Bronze Age Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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