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Wildcard Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.911x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.851x, across 3,724 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricWildcard Master PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$99.87$26.27
Cash-out ratio0.851x0.911x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.999x1.051x
Median pull$89.30$23.00
Hit rate30.6%29.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.41x
Pulls indexed4443,280

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 15 to Nov 7, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+7.3%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.16x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 15 to Nov 7, starting at 0.92x and ending at 0.91x, down overall (-1.3%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.

Wildcard Master PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Wildcard Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Wildcard Master Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.911x vs 0.851x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Wildcard Master Pack: 30.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 29.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.41x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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