Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.676x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.652x, across 19 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Sports Ultra Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $199.66 | $192.75 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.676x | 0.652x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.799x | 0.771x |
| Median pull | $207.00 | $200.00 |
| Hit rate | 21.4% | 20.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.51x | 0.26x |
| Pulls indexed | 14 | 5 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Ultra Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.81x and ending at 0.68x, down overall (-16.2%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.69x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 524 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.65x and ending at 0.65x, up overall (+0.9%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.11x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Sports Ultra Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.676x vs 0.652x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Sports Ultra Pack: 21.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 20.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.26x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies