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Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.383x EV ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.983x, across 100 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Ultra PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictEARLY READCAUTION
Pack price$250$25
Calibrated EV$345.69$24.57
EV ratio1.383x0.983x
Cash-out EV ratio1.170x0.926x
Median pull$207.00$22.30
Hit rate28.6%22.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.55x0.36x
Pulls indexed793

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Ultra Pack: 185 points from Jul 3 to Aug 6, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.38x, up overall (+45.0%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 185 points from Jul 3 to Aug 6, starting at 0.90x and ending at 0.98x, up overall (+8.9%), ranging between 0.78x and 1.17x.

Sports Ultra PackWildcard Starter Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Ultra Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.383x vs 0.983x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Ultra Pack: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 22.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.55x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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