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Sports Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.768x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.652x, across 41 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$89.80$192.75
Cash-out ratio0.768x0.652x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.898x0.771x
Median pull$88.05$200.00
Hit rate27.8%20.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.38x0.26x
Pulls indexed365

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Master Pack: 477 points from Jul 17 to Sep 11, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.77x, up overall (+4.6%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.57x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 477 points from Jul 17 to Sep 11, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.65x, down overall (-9.9%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.11x.

Sports Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Master Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Sports Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.768x vs 0.652x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Master Pack: 27.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 20.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.38x vs 0.26x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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