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Sports Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.311x cash-out ratio against Sports Master Pack's 0.852x, across 307 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONEARLY READ
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$99.78$385.45
Cash-out ratio0.852x1.311x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.998x1.542x
Median pull$86.00$218.40
Hit rate21.0%34.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.37x0.82x
Pulls indexed25255

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Master Pack: 1000 points from Jul 26 to Oct 26, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+16.1%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.57x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Jul 26 to Oct 26, starting at 0.73x and ending at 1.31x, up overall (+80.1%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.

Sports Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Master Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.311x vs 0.852x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Master Pack: 21.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 34.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.82x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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