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Sports Master Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.561x EV ratio against Sports Master Pack's 1.107x, across 12 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Master PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONEARLY READ
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$110.70$390.37
EV ratio1.107x1.561x
Cash-out EV ratio0.937x1.321x
Median pull$89.95$221.50
Hit rate33.3%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.38x0.53x
Pulls indexed66

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Master Pack: 157 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 0.96x and ending at 1.11x, up overall (+14.7%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.84x. Sports Ultra Pack: 158 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.56x, up overall (+63.6%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x.

Sports Master PackSports Ultra Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Master Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Master Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.561x vs 1.107x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Master Pack: 33.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.53x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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