Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.060x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)'s 0.945x, across 535 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $249 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $277.54 | $313.19 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.945x | 1.060x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.115x | 1.253x |
| Median pull | $177.05 | $221.20 |
| Hit rate | 37.6% | 29.4% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.77x | 0.48x |
| Pulls indexed | 518 | 17 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 1.58x and ending at 0.94x, down overall (-40.3%), ranging between 0.45x and 1.58x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 584 points from Jul 17 to Sep 18, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.06x, up overall (+46.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.060x vs 0.945x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 37.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 29.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.77x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies