Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.878x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.793x, across 152 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) | Wildcard Master Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $249 | $100 |
| Calibrated EV | $258.43 | $93.72 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.878x | 0.793x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.038x | 0.937x |
| Median pull | $167.70 | $85.60 |
| Hit rate | 35.3% | 20.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.80x | 0.28x |
| Pulls indexed | 122 | 30 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 1.33x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-33.9%), ranging between 0.45x and 1.59x. Wildcard Master Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.91x and ending at 0.79x, down overall (-13.2%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) or Wildcard Master Pack?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.878x vs 0.793x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 35.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 20.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.80x vs 0.28x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies