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Pokémon Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.060x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Master Pack's 0.875x, across 1,178 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$102.52$313.19
Cash-out ratio0.875x1.060x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.025x1.253x
Median pull$86.70$221.20
Hit rate28.1%29.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.48x
Pulls indexed1,16117

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Master Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+20.7%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.92x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 584 points from Jul 17 to Sep 18, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.06x, up overall (+46.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Pokémon Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Master Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.060x vs 0.875x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Master Pack: 28.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 29.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Neither stands out: both sit at about 0.48x stddev/EV, so on this measure they are level.

Full pages: Pokémon Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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