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Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.970x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.645x, across 19 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$1146.34$381.06
Cash-out ratio0.970x0.645x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.146x0.762x
Median pull$851.50$438.50
Hit rate16.7%28.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.19x0.15x
Pulls indexed127

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond Pack: 397 points from Aug 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.97x, up overall (+29.0%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.97x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 307 points from Aug 8 to Sep 10, starting at 0.77x and ending at 0.65x, down overall (-16.6%), ranging between 0.65x and 0.77x.

Pokémon Diamond PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Pokémon Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.970x vs 0.645x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond Pack: 16.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.19x vs 0.15x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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