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One Piece PSA 10 vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, One Piece PSA 10 is currently the better value: a 0.954x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.833x, across 664 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricOne Piece PSA 10Wildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$69$25
Calibrated EV$77.77$23.76
Cash-out ratio0.954x0.833x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.127x0.950x
Median pull$59.50$21.95
Hit rate25.0%23.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.61x0.36x
Pulls indexed8656

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. One Piece PSA 10: 151 points from Sep 9 to Sep 21, starting at 1.01x and ending at 0.95x, down overall (-5.3%), ranging between 0.95x and 1.78x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 609 points from Jul 12 to Sep 21, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+17.5%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

One Piece PSA 10Wildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

One Piece PSA 10 vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: One Piece PSA 10 or Wildcard Starter Pack?
One Piece PSA 10 currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.954x vs 0.833x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
One Piece PSA 10: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
One Piece PSA 10 has the higher volatility (0.61x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: One Piece PSA 10 EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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