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Modern Age Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Modern Age Pack is currently the better value: a 0.873x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.856x, across 943 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricModern Age PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$103.22$24.60
Cash-out ratio0.873x0.856x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.032x0.984x
Median pull$89.15$21.90
Hit rate37.5%23.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.36x
Pulls indexed80863

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Modern Age Pack: 654 points from Jul 31 to Oct 1, starting at 1.84x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-52.7%), ranging between 0.60x and 1.84x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 687 points from Jul 12 to Oct 1, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+21.6%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

Modern Age PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Modern Age Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Modern Age Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Modern Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.873x vs 0.856x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Modern Age Pack: 37.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Modern Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Modern Age Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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