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Hockey Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Hockey Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.016x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.845x, across 211 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$250$100
Calibrated EV$300.17$99.80
Cash-out ratio1.016x0.845x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.201x0.998x
Median pull$217.50$85.70
Hit rate27.3%24.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.63x0.32x
Pulls indexed44167

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Ultra Pack: 643 points from Aug 8 to Oct 10, starting at 0.67x and ending at 1.02x, up overall (+51.6%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.02x. Wildcard Master Pack: 802 points from Jul 12 to Oct 10, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.84x, up overall (+0.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Hockey Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Ultra Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Hockey Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.016x vs 0.845x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Ultra Pack: 27.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 24.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Hockey Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.63x vs 0.32x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Hockey Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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