Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.821x cash-out ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.811x, across 106 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Ultra Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $239.78 | $242.47 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.811x | 0.821x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.959x | 0.970x |
| Median pull | $213.00 | $214.50 |
| Hit rate | 15.7% | 21.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.46x |
| Pulls indexed | 83 | 23 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 665 points from Jul 17 to Sep 29, starting at 1.18x and ending at 0.81x, down overall (-31.0%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.39x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 665 points from Jul 17 to Sep 29, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+13.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.821x vs 0.811x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Ultra Pack: 15.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 21.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.46x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies