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Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 1.067x EV ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.986x, across 161 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Ultra PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$250$25
Calibrated EV$246.44$26.68
EV ratio0.986x1.067x
Cash-out EV ratio0.834x0.997x
Median pull$221.00$22.40
Hit rate28.6%27.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.46x0.38x
Pulls indexed7154

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 253 points from Jul 3 to Aug 12, starting at 1.17x and ending at 0.99x, down overall (-15.8%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.64x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 254 points from Jul 3 to Aug 12, starting at 0.90x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+18.2%), ranging between 0.78x and 1.17x.

Football Ultra PackWildcard Starter Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.067x vs 0.986x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Ultra Pack: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 27.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.46x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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