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Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.986x EV ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.978x, across 24 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$250$100
Calibrated EV$246.44$97.82
EV ratio0.986x0.978x
Cash-out EV ratio0.834x0.828x
Median pull$221.00$85.40
Hit rate28.6%23.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.46x0.28x
Pulls indexed717

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 287 points from Jul 3 to Aug 15, starting at 1.17x and ending at 0.99x, down overall (-15.8%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.64x. Wildcard Master Pack: 288 points from Jul 3 to Aug 15, starting at 1.08x and ending at 0.98x, down overall (-9.4%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.14x.

Football Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Football Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (0.986x vs 0.978x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Ultra Pack: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 23.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.46x vs 0.28x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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