Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.870x cash-out ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.836x, across 124 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Ultra Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $247.19 | $256.46 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.836x | 0.870x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.989x | 1.026x |
| Median pull | $212.00 | $220.10 |
| Hit rate | 16.9% | 38.3% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.39x | 0.38x |
| Pulls indexed | 77 | 47 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 645 points from Jul 17 to Sep 27, starting at 1.18x and ending at 0.84x, down overall (-28.9%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.39x. Sports Ultra Pack: 646 points from Jul 12 to Sep 27, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+31.2%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.69x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.870x vs 0.836x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Ultra Pack: 16.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 38.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies