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Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.230x EV ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.986x, across 16 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Ultra PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$250$250
Calibrated EV$246.44$307.55
EV ratio0.986x1.230x
Cash-out EV ratio0.834x1.041x
Median pull$221.00$207.00
Hit rate28.6%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.46x0.52x
Pulls indexed79

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 259 points from Jul 3 to Aug 13, starting at 1.17x and ending at 0.99x, down overall (-15.8%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.64x. Sports Ultra Pack: 260 points from Jul 3 to Aug 13, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.23x, up overall (+28.9%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x.

Football Ultra PackSports Ultra Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.230x vs 0.986x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Ultra Pack: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.46x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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