$500 U.S. Coins Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.911x cash-out ratio against $500 U.S. Coins Pack's 0.800x, across 2,233 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | $500 U.S. Coins Pack | Wildcard Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $500 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $472.53 | $26.38 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.800x | 0.911x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.945x | 1.055x |
| Median pull | $435.00 | $22.50 |
| Hit rate | 17.6% | 26.5% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.29x | 0.37x |
| Pulls indexed | 34 | 2,199 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 775 points from Aug 17 to Oct 28, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+2.8%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.98x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Jul 30 to Oct 28, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+14.9%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.01x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
$500 U.S. Coins Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: $500 U.S. Coins Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
- Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.911x vs 0.800x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 17.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 26.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.37x vs 0.29x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: $500 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies