$500 U.S. Coins Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.799x cash-out ratio against $500 U.S. Coins Pack's 0.737x, across 127 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | $500 U.S. Coins Pack | Wildcard Master Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $500 | $100 |
| Calibrated EV | $435.33 | $94.50 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.737x | 0.799x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.871x | 0.945x |
| Median pull | $432.50 | $85.40 |
| Hit rate | 18.2% | 22.4% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.31x | 0.33x |
| Pulls indexed | 11 | 116 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 410 points from Aug 17 to Sep 29, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.74x, down overall (-5.3%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.98x. Wildcard Master Pack: 663 points from Jul 12 to Sep 29, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.80x, down overall (-4.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
$500 U.S. Coins Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: $500 U.S. Coins Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
- Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.799x vs 0.737x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 18.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 22.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.33x vs 0.31x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: $500 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies