$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.243x cash-out ratio against $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack's 0.830x, across 103 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $500 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $490.61 | $365.58 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.830x | 1.243x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.981x | 1.462x |
| Median pull | $449.30 | $218.40 |
| Hit rate | 30.4% | 35.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.58x | 0.81x |
| Pulls indexed | 46 | 57 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack: 904 points from Aug 5 to Oct 27, starting at 1.18x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-29.9%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.18x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Jul 29 to Oct 27, starting at 0.73x and ending at 1.24x, up overall (+70.7%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.243x vs 0.830x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack: 30.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 35.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.81x vs 0.58x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies