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Wildcard Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.017x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.883x, across 297 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricWildcard Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$51.73$300.60
Cash-out ratio0.883x1.017x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.035x1.202x
Median pull$43.00$214.50
Hit rate25.0%24.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.38x0.64x
Pulls indexed26829

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Wildcard Pro Pack: 726 points from Jul 29 to Oct 5, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+32.4%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.93x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 743 points from Jul 17 to Oct 5, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.02x, up overall (+40.5%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Wildcard Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Wildcard Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Wildcard Pro Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.017x vs 0.883x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Wildcard Pro Pack: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 24.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.64x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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