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Wildcard Basic Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.920x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.852x, across 14,804 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricWildcard Basic PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$15$100
Calibrated EV$14.92$108.24
Cash-out ratio0.852x0.920x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.995x1.082x
Median pull$13.10$89.10
Hit rate25.1%29.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.50x
Pulls indexed14,467337

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Wildcard Basic Pack: 1000 points from Aug 4 to Oct 30, starting at 0.82x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+3.6%), ranging between 0.82x and 0.88x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 4 to Oct 30, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+25.5%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.15x.

Wildcard Basic PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Wildcard Basic Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Wildcard Basic Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.920x vs 0.852x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Wildcard Basic Pack: 25.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 29.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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