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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.899x cash-out ratio against Sports Pro Pack's 0.868x, across 914 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$50.70$264.71
Cash-out ratio0.868x0.899x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.014x1.059x
Median pull$44.10$217.50
Hit rate33.4%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.76x
Pulls indexed82787

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 18 to Nov 9, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+1.9%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.01x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 18 to Nov 9, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+24.3%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.55x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.899x vs 0.868x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 33.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.76x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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