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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.926x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.826x, across 448 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$100
Calibrated EV$53.83$97.60
Cash-out ratio0.926x0.826x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.077x0.976x
Median pull$45.05$85.40
Hit rate32.5%23.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.53x0.33x
Pulls indexed314134

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 707 points from Jul 12 to Oct 2, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+26.7%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.04x. Wildcard Master Pack: 707 points from Jul 12 to Oct 2, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-1.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.926x vs 0.826x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 32.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.53x vs 0.33x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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