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Sports Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.060x cash-out ratio against Sports Platinum Pack's 1.035x, across 27 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$591.37$313.19
Cash-out ratio1.035x1.060x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.183x1.253x
Median pull$410.15$221.20
Hit rate20.0%29.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.53x0.48x
Pulls indexed1017

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Platinum Pack: 435 points from Aug 8 to Sep 19, starting at 0.70x and ending at 1.03x, up overall (+47.0%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.03x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 589 points from Jul 17 to Sep 19, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.06x, up overall (+46.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Sports Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.060x vs 1.035x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Platinum Pack: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 29.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.53x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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