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Sports Platinum Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.941x cash-out ratio against Sports Platinum Pack's 0.862x, across 170 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Platinum PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$491.89$277.78
Cash-out ratio0.862x0.941x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.984x1.111x
Median pull$434.00$222.00
Hit rate34.0%37.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.35x0.47x
Pulls indexed47123

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Platinum Pack: 991 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+22.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.23x. Sports Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 1.17x and ending at 0.94x, down overall (-19.6%), ranging between 0.68x and 1.23x.

Sports Platinum PackSports Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Platinum Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Platinum Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.941x vs 0.862x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Platinum Pack: 34.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 37.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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