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Sports Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.866x cash-out ratio against Sports Pro Pack's 0.844x, across 1,069 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Master PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$100.97$49.22
Cash-out ratio0.866x0.844x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.010x0.984x
Median pull$85.95$44.10
Hit rate22.1%32.8%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.43x0.47x
Pulls indexed330739

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+4.6%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.10x. Sports Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.94x and ending at 0.84x, down overall (-9.8%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.01x.

Sports Master PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Master Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.866x vs 0.844x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Master Pack: 22.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 32.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.43x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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