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Sports Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.905x cash-out ratio against Sports Master Pack's 0.806x, across 302 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Master PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$93.40$52.23
Cash-out ratio0.806x0.905x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.934x1.045x
Median pull$86.40$44.50
Hit rate21.1%33.2%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.38x0.50x
Pulls indexed109193

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Master Pack: 595 points from Jul 17 to Sep 19, starting at 0.74x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+8.8%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.59x. Sports Pro Pack: 596 points from Jul 12 to Sep 19, starting at 0.74x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+22.8%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.04x.

Sports Master PackSports Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Master Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Master Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.905x vs 0.806x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Master Pack: 21.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 33.2%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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