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Soccer Starter Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.931x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.883x, across 1,484 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Starter PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$25$100
Calibrated EV$25.71$103.71
Cash-out ratio0.931x0.883x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.028x1.037x
Median pull$22.50$89.40
Hit rate33.7%30.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.48x
Pulls indexed1,067417

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+8.0%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.00x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+6.1%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.16x.

Soccer Starter PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Starter Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Starter Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Soccer Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.931x vs 0.883x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Starter Pack: 33.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 30.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Soccer Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.49x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Starter Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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