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Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.886x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.831x, across 949 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$50.92$23.75
Cash-out ratio0.886x0.831x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.018x0.950x
Median pull$42.90$21.90
Hit rate27.8%23.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.44x0.36x
Pulls indexed259690

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Pro Pack: 618 points from Jul 26 to Sep 22, starting at 0.61x and ending at 0.89x, up overall (+45.5%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.02x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 626 points from Jul 12 to Sep 22, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+17.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

Soccer Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Soccer Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.886x vs 0.831x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Pro Pack: 27.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Soccer Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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