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Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.879x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.854x, across 293 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Pro PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$100
Calibrated EV$50.22$100.92
Cash-out ratio0.879x0.854x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.004x1.009x
Median pull$43.00$85.60
Hit rate27.9%23.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.39x0.35x
Pulls indexed21578

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Pro Pack: 577 points from Jul 26 to Sep 18, starting at 0.61x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+43.6%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.02x. Wildcard Master Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+1.9%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Soccer Pro PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Pro Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Soccer Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.879x vs 0.854x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Pro Pack: 27.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Soccer Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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