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Soccer Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.934x cash-out ratio against Soccer Platinum Pack's 0.850x, across 43 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$498.66$276.00
Cash-out ratio0.850x0.934x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.997x1.104x
Median pull$437.00$217.85
Hit rate34.8%25.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.28x0.47x
Pulls indexed2320

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Platinum Pack: 595 points from Jul 30 to Sep 22, starting at 0.82x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+3.9%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.92x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 622 points from Jul 17 to Sep 22, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+29.0%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Soccer Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.934x vs 0.850x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Platinum Pack: 34.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 25.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.28x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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