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Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.922x cash-out ratio against Soccer Master Pack's 0.834x, across 805 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$98.13$271.50
Cash-out ratio0.834x0.922x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.981x1.086x
Median pull$86.85$217.10
Hit rate31.7%33.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.42x0.77x
Pulls indexed72283

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 6, starting at 0.87x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-4.4%), ranging between 0.73x and 0.98x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 6, starting at 0.90x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+2.7%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.

Soccer Master PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Master Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.922x vs 0.834x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Master Pack: 31.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 33.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.77x vs 0.42x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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