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Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.831x cash-out ratio against Soccer Master Pack's 0.796x, across 865 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Master PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$93.79$23.75
Cash-out ratio0.796x0.831x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.938x0.950x
Median pull$85.00$21.90
Hit rate24.6%23.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.36x0.36x
Pulls indexed175690

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Master Pack: 618 points from Jul 26 to Sep 22, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+8.4%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.98x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 626 points from Jul 12 to Sep 22, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+17.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

Soccer Master PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Master Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.831x vs 0.796x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Master Pack: 24.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Neither stands out: both sit at about 0.36x stddev/EV, so on this measure they are level.

Full pages: Soccer Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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