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Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.873x cash-out ratio against Soccer Master Pack's 0.831x, across 1,120 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Master PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$100
Calibrated EV$97.69$102.54
Cash-out ratio0.831x0.873x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.977x1.025x
Median pull$86.80$89.32
Hit rate30.9%30.8%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.42x0.48x
Pulls indexed698422

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+17.5%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.98x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+4.9%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.16x.

Soccer Master PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Master Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Master Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.873x vs 0.831x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Master Pack: 30.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 30.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.42x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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