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Pokémon Pro Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 1.110x EV ratio against Pokémon Pro Pack's 1.029x, across 633 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Pro PackPokémon Ultra (Spicy)
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$249
Calibrated EV$51.45$276.41
EV ratio1.029x1.110x
Cash-out EV ratio0.892x0.939x
Median pull$43.75$399.10
Hit rate27.4%60.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.69x0.48x
Pulls indexed6285

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Pro Pack: 323 points from Jul 3 to Aug 20, starting at 0.76x and ending at 1.03x, up overall (+34.9%), ranging between 0.76x and 1.11x. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 323 points from Jul 3 to Aug 20, starting at 1.57x and ending at 1.11x, down overall (-29.3%), ranging between 0.53x and 1.87x.

Pokémon Pro PackPokémon Ultra (Spicy)

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Pro Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Pro Pack or Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?
Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) currently offers the better EV ratio (1.110x vs 1.029x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Pro Pack: 27.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 60.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.69x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Pro Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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