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Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.799x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.645x, across 30 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Platinum (Spicy)Wildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$499$500
Calibrated EV$471.12$381.06
Cash-out ratio0.799x0.645x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.944x0.762x
Median pull$415.70$438.50
Hit rate26.1%28.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.33x0.15x
Pulls indexed237

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Platinum (Spicy): 452 points from Jul 29 to Sep 10, starting at 1.06x and ending at 0.80x, down overall (-24.8%), ranging between 0.58x and 1.06x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 307 points from Aug 8 to Sep 10, starting at 0.77x and ending at 0.65x, down overall (-16.6%), ranging between 0.65x and 0.77x.

Pokémon Platinum (Spicy)Wildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.799x vs 0.645x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy): 26.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.33x vs 0.15x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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