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Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.957x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.888x, across 679 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Platinum (Spicy)Wildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$499$500
Calibrated EV$556.53$490.84
Cash-out ratio0.957x0.888x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.115x0.982x
Median pull$416.70$418.50
Hit rate34.1%23.8%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.57x0.26x
Pulls indexed63742

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Platinum (Spicy): 1000 points from Aug 3 to Oct 30, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+10.8%), ranging between 0.59x and 1.04x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 909 points from Aug 8 to Oct 30, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.89x, up overall (+7.4%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.01x.

Pokémon Platinum (Spicy)Wildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.957x vs 0.888x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy): 34.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 23.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.57x vs 0.26x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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