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Pokémon Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.060x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Platinum Pack's 1.017x, across 79 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$587.48$313.19
Cash-out ratio1.017x1.060x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.175x1.253x
Median pull$459.95$221.20
Hit rate41.9%29.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.44x0.48x
Pulls indexed6217

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Platinum Pack: 535 points from Aug 1 to Sep 18, starting at 0.87x and ending at 1.02x, up overall (+17.4%), ranging between 0.76x and 1.49x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 584 points from Jul 17 to Sep 18, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.06x, up overall (+46.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Pokémon Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.060x vs 1.017x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Platinum Pack: 41.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 29.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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