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Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) vs Pokémon Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.116x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Diamond (Spicy)'s 0.994x, across 45 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond (Spicy)Pokémon Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONEARLY READ
Pack price$999$500
Calibrated EV$1173.55$641.23
Cash-out ratio0.994x1.116x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.175x1.282x
Median pull$808.90$450.00
Hit rate22.2%29.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.56x0.44x
Pulls indexed1827

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond (Spicy): 286 points from Aug 11 to Sep 10, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.99x, up overall (+51.3%), ranging between 0.60x and 1.24x. Pokémon Platinum Pack: 420 points from Aug 1 to Sep 10, starting at 0.87x and ending at 1.12x, up overall (+28.1%), ranging between 0.77x and 1.36x.

Pokémon Diamond (Spicy)Pokémon Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) vs Pokémon Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) or Pokémon Platinum Pack?
Pokémon Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.116x vs 0.994x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond (Spicy): 22.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Platinum Pack: 29.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.56x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) EV & verdict · Pokémon Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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