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Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.116x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Diamond Pack's 0.970x, across 39 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond PackPokémon Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONEARLY READ
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$1146.34$641.23
Cash-out ratio0.970x1.116x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.146x1.282x
Median pull$851.50$450.00
Hit rate16.7%29.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.19x0.44x
Pulls indexed1227

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond Pack: 397 points from Aug 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.97x, up overall (+29.0%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.97x. Pokémon Platinum Pack: 420 points from Aug 1 to Sep 10, starting at 0.87x and ending at 1.12x, up overall (+28.1%), ranging between 0.77x and 1.36x.

Pokémon Diamond PackPokémon Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond Pack or Pokémon Platinum Pack?
Pokémon Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.116x vs 0.970x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond Pack: 16.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Platinum Pack: 29.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.19x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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