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Pokémon Basic Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.919x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Basic Pack's 0.851x, across 4,148 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Basic PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictNO DATACAUTION
Pack price$15$100
Calibrated EV$14.84$108.12
Cash-out ratio0.851x0.919x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.989x1.081x
Median pull$12.50$89.05
Hit rate22.8%29.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.50x
Pulls indexed3,822326

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Basic Pack: 1000 points from Aug 2 to Oct 30, starting at 0.57x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+49.0%), ranging between 0.55x and 0.85x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 2 to Oct 30, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+25.2%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.15x.

Pokémon Basic PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Basic Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Basic Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.919x vs 0.851x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Basic Pack: 22.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 29.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.49x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Basic Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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