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One Piece Starter Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.916x cash-out ratio against One Piece Starter Pack's 0.907x, across 4,658 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricOne Piece Starter PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$25$25
Calibrated EV$25.60$26.42
Cash-out ratio0.907x0.916x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.024x1.057x
Median pull$22.60$23.00
Hit rate30.1%29.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.41x0.41x
Pulls indexed1,4833,175

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. One Piece Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.92x and ending at 0.91x, down overall (-1.1%), ranging between 0.77x and 1.03x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.93x and ending at 0.92x, down overall (-1.0%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.

One Piece Starter PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

One Piece Starter Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: One Piece Starter Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.916x vs 0.907x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
One Piece Starter Pack: 30.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 29.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Neither stands out: both sit at about 0.41x stddev/EV, so on this measure they are level.

Full pages: One Piece Starter Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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