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One Piece PSA 10 vs One Piece Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, One Piece PSA 10 is currently the better value: a 0.993x cash-out ratio against One Piece Starter Pack's 0.803x, across 76 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricOne Piece PSA 10One Piece Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$69$25
Calibrated EV$80.95$21.85
Cash-out ratio0.993x0.803x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.173x0.874x
Median pull$60.20$22.30
Hit rate28.6%21.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.62x0.34x
Pulls indexed769

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. One Piece PSA 10: 12 points from Sep 9 to Sep 10, starting at 1.01x and ending at 0.99x, down overall (-1.4%), ranging between 0.99x and 1.78x. One Piece Starter Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.69x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+15.7%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.08x.

One Piece PSA 10One Piece Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

One Piece PSA 10 vs One Piece Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: One Piece PSA 10 or One Piece Starter Pack?
One Piece PSA 10 currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.993x vs 0.803x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
One Piece PSA 10: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. One Piece Starter Pack: 21.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
One Piece PSA 10 has the higher volatility (0.62x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: One Piece PSA 10 EV & verdict · One Piece Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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