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One Piece Master Pack vs One Piece PSA 10: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, One Piece PSA 10 is currently the better value: a 0.993x cash-out ratio against One Piece Master Pack's 0.901x, across 79 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricOne Piece Master PackOne Piece PSA 10
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$69
Calibrated EV$106.45$80.95
Cash-out ratio0.901x0.993x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.065x1.173x
Median pull$86.60$60.20
Hit rate25.0%28.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.37x0.62x
Pulls indexed727

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. One Piece Master Pack: 468 points from Jul 18 to Sep 10, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+44.2%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.24x. One Piece PSA 10: 12 points from Sep 9 to Sep 10, starting at 1.01x and ending at 0.99x, down overall (-1.4%), ranging between 0.99x and 1.78x.

One Piece Master PackOne Piece PSA 10

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

One Piece Master Pack vs One Piece PSA 10 — quick answers

Which is better value right now: One Piece Master Pack or One Piece PSA 10?
One Piece PSA 10 currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.993x vs 0.901x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
One Piece Master Pack: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. One Piece PSA 10: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
One Piece PSA 10 has the higher volatility (0.62x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: One Piece Master Pack EV & verdict · One Piece PSA 10 EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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