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Modern Age Pack vs Silver Age Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Silver Age Pack is currently the better value: a 0.875x cash-out ratio against Modern Age Pack's 0.825x, across 61 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricModern Age PackSilver Age Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$97.53$516.97
Cash-out ratio0.825x0.875x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.975x1.034x
Median pull$84.35$419.00
Hit rate38.9%28.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.48x
Pulls indexed547

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Modern Age Pack: 552 points from Jul 31 to Sep 18, starting at 1.84x and ending at 0.82x, down overall (-55.3%), ranging between 0.60x and 1.84x. Silver Age Pack: 444 points from Aug 7 to Sep 18, starting at 1.60x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-45.3%), ranging between 0.54x and 1.60x.

Modern Age PackSilver Age Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Modern Age Pack vs Silver Age Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Modern Age Pack or Silver Age Pack?
Silver Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.875x vs 0.825x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Modern Age Pack: 38.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Silver Age Pack: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Modern Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Modern Age Pack EV & verdict · Silver Age Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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