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Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.906x cash-out ratio against Hockey Pro Pack's 0.896x, across 3,086 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$52.43$26.20
Cash-out ratio0.896x0.906x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.049x1.048x
Median pull$44.70$22.70
Hit rate32.2%28.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.39x
Pulls indexed4692,617

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 4 to Oct 31, starting at 0.82x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+9.8%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.00x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 4 to Oct 31, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+5.2%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.

Hockey Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.906x vs 0.896x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Pro Pack: 32.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 28.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Hockey Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Hockey Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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