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Hockey Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.903x cash-out ratio against Hockey Master Pack's 0.832x, across 2,959 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Master PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$97.92$26.07
Cash-out ratio0.832x0.903x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.979x1.043x
Median pull$84.70$22.80
Hit rate28.0%28.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.39x0.39x
Pulls indexed2712,688

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Master Pack: 990 points from Aug 6 to Nov 1, starting at 1.04x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-19.8%), ranging between 0.72x and 1.04x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.87x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+3.8%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.

Hockey Master PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Master Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.903x vs 0.832x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Master Pack: 28.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 28.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Neither stands out: both sit at about 0.39x stddev/EV, so on this measure they are level.

Full pages: Hockey Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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