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Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 1.149x EV ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 1.132x, across 19 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Ultra PackSports Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONEARLY READ
Pack price$250$50
Calibrated EV$282.90$57.45
EV ratio1.132x1.149x
Cash-out EV ratio0.957x1.034x
Median pull$221.00$46.65
Hit rate40.0%42.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.36x
Pulls indexed514

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Ultra Pack: 174 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 1.17x and ending at 1.13x, down overall (-3.3%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.64x. Sports Pro Pack: 175 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 0.97x and ending at 1.15x, up overall (+18.9%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.21x.

Football Ultra PackSports Pro Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Ultra Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.149x vs 1.132x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Ultra Pack: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 42.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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